Today I've had it. I am so sick of reading only negative information in the newspapers, on the TV, on the internet. Everyone knows life has cycles and real estate is no exception. But if you're glued to the media, you'd think Armageddon was knocking at our door. It is the epitome of yellow journalism. Highlight the bad - no, ram it down our throats - and, oh, sorry, neglect to give the other side of the story.
Here are some statistics - an antidote to the negative media:
In our market, over $400,000,000 in real estate was sold last month. Do you remember reading that in the local rags? Did anyone on TV tell you that?
In 2001, 12,609 properties sold through 10/31.
In 2007, 12,471 properties sold through 10/31.
Armageddon? Hardly. Slowdown? Yes, and a natural return to a NORMAL MARKET.
In 2005, 17,752 properties sold through 10/31.
In 2006, 16,328 properties sold through 10/31.
That's a 30% slow down this year from the madhouse we had in 2005 when everyone was an investor and anyone who wasn't an investor was a newbie realtor. Historically, real estate values correspond with income. Rising values will drop if income doesn't take the same leap. Anyone out there get a 100% raise in the last four years? You wish.
What interests me also is that property taxes have taken a quantum leap yet government costs have not risen proportionately. Has your cost of living risen 50-100% in the last four years? But that's another topic for another day.
When I started in real estate in 2001, the market was similar. Buyers were cautious, Builders were jumping through hoops to attract realtors and their buyers, and you actually had to WORK at real estate to make a living. You endured lots of disappointments with the hope of actually making a sale.
The only difference was there weren't a gazillion houses on the market. Today, the 'genius' investors are dumping their houses, some of the people who used their homes as ATM machines are being forced to dump their houses, the people who just plain didn't understand (or were in denial) that their teaser rate was going to balloon into a three-headed monster are dumping their houses, the banks appear to be doing their best to prolong the agony on the houses they are dumping, and then there are the normal people who just happen to have to sell to move on who are mixed in with this reverse 'frenzy.'
It will end as all cycles do. About 900 people daily move into the Sunshine state. Florida is one of the top states in the nation for creating new jobs. Our office has seen a pick up in showings and people calling to inquire about properties for sale in the last week and a half. Remember,e $400,000,000 sold last month. Just take a deep breath, don't panic, and it will be alright. Really.
In the meantime, there are some excellent buys to be had with historically low interest rates. If you are selling and (a) haven't used your house as an ATM machine or (b) didn't buy at the top of the market, guess what? You still have cash to take away from the closing table and you have likely out-performed your mutual fund.
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Hi Sharon,
Welcome to Active Rain! The opportunities to learn and network are incredible here. Best of luck to ya!
-Keith
Sharon,
Love the attitude ! It is that type of attitude that will seperate the good agents from the rest in the next year or two and in reality, already has... The doom-and-gloomers will not do well as we are in a sales profession. The fact of the matter is, even with alllllllllll the media drama, is that there is still always a need for buyers and sellers to do business, not matter what the market conditions are. The conditions are tough but there are a lot of agents doing well. These are the agents that are positive and working hard ! Keep up the attitude and enjoy all the benefits of Active Rain ! It has already helped us expand our web presence.
Thanks Christopher and Stephanie. As many have said before, "The market is down but I have chosen not to participate in it." I am very excited about how it is going to expand our web presence.
The sad part is all the financial intutitutions, analysts and even those on CNBC got negative on the housing market because so much money was flowing into real estate... and to be honest, they wanted it back! Well they certianly got it... and then some... and then it came back to bite them and now everyone is looking for someone to blame and wants the good old days back(except the real estate agents). Contrary to popular belief it's much better for everyone to have a normal market with very modest price appreciation.
Many seem to have the view that realtors loved the irrational exuberence in the market and we all just want a normal market! The sellers market was sucking the lifr out off the real estate professional that had only one in 4 or 5 units actually closing because there was so little inventory. Irrational media exuberence has exacerbated the problem and now we are all paying for it. I don't deny that the market was overpriced but we could have had a soft correction.
The stock market rallied in the wake of the media scrutiny on overpriced housing and the inflow of money into the market made a lot of people rich... until there own greed and negativity drove the financial institutions to the brink of collapse.
I agree we need to get back to the statistics. Some think that we are manipulating those now to and somhow forcing buyers into the market. You are correc t though... the numbers DONT LIE!
Garren, numbers don't lie. One of my favorite articles this year in one of the Realtor magazines is "Know Your Numbers." One of my favorite posts is Mirela Monte's post on knowing your market. (It's late otherwise I'd give you the link. But look her up, it's a great post.) I'll be doing another one updating this theme.